After that historic win against Senegal, what's next? Are we forever qualified with all the major international basketball competitions?
That's what I wish, but two things crossed my thoughts; one, on basketball #WalangForever, and two, we're just getting started. It's hard to get on top, but it's harder to stay on top.
It's a nice feeling that in Asia, this little proud country of ours are now considered as a powerhouse in the game of basketball. Other countries are now wary of the talents the Filipinos have in basketball. We were the prey before but now we are the predators. We were the dark horses before, but now we are legitimate contenders. Validated by our mighty showing in the 2014 FIBA World Cup. Iran was lucky to have Egypt on their group while South Korea didn't win a thing. Gilas, meanwhile, ate Croatia's brain, managed to give the Greeks a kick in the balls, gave Argentina a heart attack, made Puerto Rico walk in their knees, and finally destroyed Senegal before leaving Spain.
That was a nice trip back down to memory lane.
But it's 2015 already. Where are we now?
Last night's draw reminded us how "lucky" we are right now. That "lucky" is short for very, very, very, very, very, very, very lucky. That one "very" represents the fact that Gilas will have a field day on it's road to the quarterfinals. They have a very large margin of error to work on to when it comes to get the feel of the entire tournament, get their groove, and come out in the most important matches down the road as the powerhouse everyone expected them to be.
The multiple "very" represents the fact that Gilas doesn't have a team yet.
So to combine everything, this is what the statement would look like...
"They have a very large margin of error to work on to when it comes to get the feel of the entire tournament, get their groove, and come out in the most important matches down the road as the powerhouse everyone expected them to be, even though Gilas doesn't even have a pool of players yet."
Aren't you alarmed by this?
Imagine if we had Lebanon, Qatar, and Kazakhstan in Group B, just switching teams from Group D... at this rate, we might even say goodbye in the first round. The Kazakhs are playing with the Europeans, the core of the Lebanese team has been there for a decade and seemingly hasn't lost a beat up to now, and the man-eating monsters of Qatar. 87 days to go and we don't have a team yet. Who will we send to face them, the Blackwater Elite?
That's why we are very, very, very, very, very, very, very lucky. The darkhorses will kill each other up until the second round. Which leads me to my projections.
Group A has Iran, Japan, Malaysia, and the South Asian qualifier which we will know by next weekend. As of this day, Japan has the spotlight of this group because the country is still suspended by FIBA. However, the Japanese Basketball Association were allowed to resume international basketball activities, including this upcoming Asian Championships. News has it that the suspension will be lifted by August. With Japan getting their shit together, I guess it's time for us to say goodbye to the basketball league that has the most awesome name in the planet... the BJ-League.
Group B has Philippines, Kuwait, Palestine, and the winner between Hong Kong and Mongolia. I will put my money on Mongolia, so Gilas and all of the Gilas fans can say hello once again to their favorite Asian import, SANCHIR!!!
Group C has South Korea, China, Jordan, and Singapore. South Korea might be bringing a new naturalized player this year, while China must be past the middle phase of their rebuilding process. This is Jordan's third year with Rajko Toroman. And Singapore, welcome to the "Group Of Death".
Group D has Taiwan, Qatar, Lebanon, and Kazakhstan. This is the most even and most exciting group FIBA Asia has made in the history of FIBA Asia. All four teams are equally matched and equally capable to advance in the quarterfinals. Darkhorses are put together in one group. How do you like that?
But with my first projections at T minus 87 days, I had Taiwan being eliminated in the first round. Taiwan doesn't have a good history with Middle East teams. China will beat Korea in the preliminaries owing to the experience gained by the young players of China (Guo Ailun, Zuo Pheng, Wang Zhelin), Yi Jianlian joining the party, and the avoidance of fielding old men in the national team and those young guys will just go to that old man and watch them do his thing. Hello Wang Zhizhi!
Iran and Philippines are expected to past through the quarterfinals easily, with Iran beating Gilas in the second round by a margin of 43 points. Come on! Those Iranians have been playing together for 10 years and they'll face a team that was made in 10 weeks. What are we, NBA Players?
That's why in my current projections, Gilas will reach as far as the semifinals but ultimately bowing out to the Koreans in the 3rd place match. We'll get beat by the Koreans not because of the curse, but with just the absence of preparation that we have now. We won't even play in the Olympic Qualifying Tournament next year.
Iran will be winning it all once again, but my further, farther projection says this will be the last championship that this core of Haddadi, Bahrami, and Kamrani will win. They won't win the 2017 FIBA Asia Championship.
A lot of things can happen in 87 days. My projections are guaranteed to change. But for Gilas, there is not a lot of preparation that they can do in those 87 days.
"Amat Victoria Curam. Victory Loves Preparation." - Harry McKenna's Gun, The Mechanic, 2011
---
Follow the writer on Twitter and Instagram: @sportscastengr
